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The Poker Professionals Association

Research Chapter

05

FM RATIO

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For the professional poker player, few things are more important to know than the FM ratio of a table, as it determines not only profitability but virtually dictates the winning strategy.

FM stands for Folding Money or Free Money as some poker professionals like to refer to it as, since it is literally that for the knowledgeable professional player. Ratio refers to the percentage of time this Free Money occurs at a particular table.

To gain a proper overall perspective, lets look at the basic dynamics of poker. Poker is not primarily a card game, it is essentially a betting game. If you doubt this, consider what the game would be without betting. It would become a game where no player would ever fold and at the end, the best hand would automatically win each time. There would be no bluffing, semi-bluffing, betting, raising, re-raising, or strategy and in the end, all players would win and lose about the same number of hands.

Now if you did just the opposite and removed the cards from the equation, poker would be a pure betting game where you could bluff, semi-bluff, bet, raise, re-raise and use strategy. A winner could be selected a random at the end of the betting from the players remaining in the pot. In this scenario, you will notice we have removed all cards from the game, yet we still have more of the features that makes poker interesting than poker without betting.

Once you isolate the betting portion of the game, it is easier to see clearly that what is essentially happening is that a number of players contribute money into a pot that is eventually won by one of the last remaining bettors. Notice that bettors who have discontinued betting, what we refer to as folding, are not entitled to win any of the pot or even take back the money they contributed. Thus we get the source of "Free Money". It is money donated by players who are no longer entitled to any of it.

It is essentially no different than if, while you were playing poker, strangers would pass by your table and throw some money in the pot and then leave. This "Free Money" now is extra money you will receive when you win the pot.

You might argue that it is different because the "Free Money" was not donated by a player, but put in the pot in an expectation of having some chance of winning. While this is true at the time this player bets, it is no longer relevant once this player folds. Their contributions now becomes "Free Money" as they are no longer entitled to share in it.

So, you might say, how does knowing this become important in formulating strategy?

Before we discuss analysis and strategy, bear with us in looking at one extreme example of this application. Let's assume, for the moment, you were fortunate to be playing with a full table of the dumbest poker players in the world. Let's say their strategy was to bet and raise at random; however, to always fold before the river. In other words, no matter how good their hand was, you could depend on them folding at some time.

As extreme as this example is, it serves to illustrate how we can measure the "FM ratio" of a table. To evaluate the FM Ratio of the example we just gave, we would observe a number of rounds of play to see how many rounds were folded without a final showdown. In this case we would quickly notice that all rounds were folded before a showdown. In fact, no Showdown ever actually occurred. Consequently, we would assign an FM Ratio to this table of 100%, meaning 100% of the rounds were folded.

Knowing this about this table, you can easily see that the correct for you would be to bet all your hands to the river as you could depend upon all the players folding to you every time. You would in fact play every hand you got to the river, as the quality of your hand would, in this case, be unimportant since you would never actually be facing a showdown.

On the opposite end of this extreme, would be a table of players, lets call them the second dumbest poker players in the world, who would always call, raise or bet to the showdown, no matter what the quality of their hands were. None of these players would ever fold.

The FM Ratio of this table would be 0% as no players ever actually fold, there would be 0% "Folding Money" or 0% FM Ratio.

Knowing this about this table of players, you can deduce that unlike the previous example, you can no longer bet every hand to the end, as you would be certain to be called or raise every time. You could also deduce that bluffing this table would be an exercise in futility as no amount of bluffing would ever result in a player folding. You could however expect to be paid off in large pots, since every player stays in,when you play quality hands to the river.

Will you ever see one of these two extreme games? We very much doubt it, however, you will see most games fall not in the middle, 50% FM Ratio, as you might expect. Rather we have observed that most games fall somewhere either in the 20%-40% or the 60%-to 80% range. Naturally, the closer the ratios fall towards either the "0%" or the "100%" the easier it is for you to formulate a correct strategy. However, even games in the "20%-40%" or the "60% - 80%" ranges offer you a distinct edge once you are aware of the FM Ratios.

In later chapters, we will offer you specific winning strategies to take maximum advantage of the FM Ratio.

Meanwhile, we recommend you try to evaluate the FM Ratio of a game before entering, if possible. It will allow you to formulate your personal strategy before playing and give you a decided edge on players unaware of the FM Ratio.

For your convenience in relationship to the current topic, and as a continous reference, the poker point system is attached below.

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POKER PRO POINT SYSTEM

With the point system we assign each card a specific relative value or points. As expected, the Ace receives the highest value; however, you will note that cards rankings from 8 down receive no value, unless paired, connected or suited.

For learning purposes, we are using Texas Hold'em Poker game primarily because it is currently the leading money game both for tournaments and live play and it the easiest to use to demonstrate the point system, as only two cards are dealt each player initially. Naturally we will cover the use of the Point System in other primary poker games in later research chapters.

Individual Card Point Values:

• A= 6 points
• K= 5 points
• Q= 4 points
• J = 3 points
• 10=2 points
• 9 = 1 points
• 8 = 0 points
• 7 = 0 points
• 6 = 0 points
• 5 = 0 points
• 4 = 0 points
• 3 = 0 points
• 2 = 0 points

Pairs receive an extra value of 8 points.

Suited cards receive an extra value of 3 points.

Connected cards receive an extra value of 2 points.

Suited cards are written with a small "s" as: KJ's

Connected cards refers to directly adjacent cards such as: KQ or AK or KQ or QJ, not KJ or AQ.

Examples of values of first two cards dealt in Texas Hold'em:

• AA=20 points (6 points for each ace plus 8 points for a pair)
• KK=18 points (5 points for each king plus 8 points for a pair)
• QQ=16 points (4 points for each queen plus 8 points for a pair)
• AK's=16 points (6 points for the ace, 5 points for the king plus 3 points for being suited and 2 points for being connected)
• JJ=14 points (3 points for each jack plus 8 points for a pair)
• KQ's=14 points (5 points for the king, 4 points for the queen plus 3 points for being suited and 2 points for being connected)
• AK=13 points (6 points for the ace, 5 points for the king plus 2 points for being connected)
• AQ's=13 points (6 points for the ace, 4 points for the queen plus 3 points for being suited)
• T,T=12 points (2 points for each ten plus 8 points for a pair)
• AJ's=12 points (6 points for the ace, 3 points for the jack plus 3 points for being suited)
• AT's=11 points (6 points for the ace, 2 points for the ten plus 3 points for being suited)
• KJ's=11 points (5 points for the king, 3 points for the jack plus 3 points for being suited)
• KQ=11 points (5 points for the king, 4 points for the queen plus 2 points for being connected)
• 9,9=10 points (1 point for each 9 plus 8 points for a pair)
• AQ=10 points (6 points for the ace, 4 points for the queen)

It is interesting to note the value difference of 3 points between AQ's and AQ. This demonstrates the importance of suiting and is helpful in evaluating the correct value of a AQ starting hand. Suited it is definitely playable while unsuited it can be a marginal hand often played for more than it's worth.

"Play to Win"

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